Dow Daily, PSE daily, and Elliot Wave analysis of this bull market until 2012 7-3-2011

From our last post indicating the we might found the short term bottom already after getting the double bottom, actually we did! and it went on a strong rally with a 5% gain in 1 week time span. Greece has bene given around 100+ Billion of Bailout AGAIN. Yet to be assure, the 15% cut in wages, 15% tax in alcohol/cigarettes, Cuts in Healthcare and Govt spending, wont pay that almost 1T Debt of Greece, lets party till we see European Countries beg for Bailouts also. (Ireland and etc).

For short term traders, Daily charts broke out of the downtrend range, rally was spectacular and recommended to have short correction as RSI is at 84. We are back in the uptrend mode. Next resistance is at the 52 week high of 12800.



Elliot Wave analysis Forecast:

Let us try to formulate and forecast where this Bull market can bring us. So far, we found the short term bottom at 11800 which is really needed to continue this bull market globally.

I have made 2 possible scenario, with the guidance of Tony Caldaro's blog as well. This is a no assurance trend but on my elliot wave experience, it comes close to what Elliot Wave Analysis can do.

1st Scenario (Longer bull market scenario) - We are only at the Primary Wave III, Intermediate wave iii., and is a long way before this bull market ends. At this type of projection, we can see the enormous Primary Wave III ends at around 13,500 level, before a 10-15% major correction happens.

Estimate time to end of Bull market for this scenario is around Q2 2011. Same as Tony Caldaro's forecast.



2nd Scenario (My Shorter version forecast) - In our 2nd scenario, I made trends as short as possible, making the 12800 high as the Primary Wave III, and the 2 mos correction as the process of the Primary Wave IV Correction, this is way shorter rallies from my charts above.

This is one possible scenario which im playing around.

Yet, overall 1st scenario and 2nd scenario points to a place that this bull market might end at early 2012 or late 2012 with an initial target of the all time high for the DOW of 14,500.

TRADE THE RANGE.

Good luck on the trades!


For our very own PSE Market. I did not trade it actually, I was really hoping that the 4150 drop was a breakdown already. Then, the very next day, it was just a false breakdown, I still see this market as a less opportunity to make money, as we are just fighting around the ALL TIME HIGH, and speculating that in months timeframe, will be getting a new ALL TIME HIGH. Im less betting here, as MACD / RSI and volume is very light and no good indication that a breakout could happen soon. But still, its more likely to happen, I am just betting - NOT NOW. A breakout of DOW of 12800 could lead to breakout of PSE to the 4400 level.

Congratulations for the range trade of 4150-4350, that's somehow a huge gain already. But individual stocks are still laggard, only TEL is doing its job to range trade, others are either unchanged, or still stuck at 2011 level range.

TRADE THE RANGE.




EW charts belong to Tony Caldaro of caldaro.wordpress.com