Are we still in BULL Market or now in a BEAR Market 8-18-2011

Markets are being rattled again by European Bank trying to get a 500M euro loan for a whooping 1.1% a day, and a normal interest rate in europe for 1 month loan is 0.7-1% per month. Something is really on that had rattled this European Market again.

DOW is again 200+ points into the downside.

I have prepared below 2 types of scenario going to happen soon, only time will tell if we are in a BEAR or a BULL.

FIRST. Is the Bearish Scenario where It is now 70% chance of happening, what we had was a cut-throat rally to 11500 resistance level in PINK line, and is likely to make a new low, if that happens, we count the downward selloffs as 5 downward counts, in an ELLIOT WAVE analysis, whatever is a 5 wave downward selloff, is a high chance bear market selloff, followed by a 3 wave rally correction. In short, a 5-3-5 bear market count.

If this happens, I am also scared, that I need to cut all my positions when it reaches 11500-11800-12000 around 1-2months from now, then go away and have a vacation. As this count suggest a strong chance to get 9000 level anytime soon.



SECOND. Market may just be consolidating off the ground, and gaining momentum to break the 11500 resistance, and eventually head onto a small bump to the 11800-12000 resistance, and eventually get out of 12000 level and Bull market continues.

But what's happening right now, is that, more bad news are coming, and I put this scenario as 30% to happen.


SOME PSE MARKET SNAPSHOTS:










Personal Disclosure:
I sold whatever I can sell on the PSE market, now at 75% Cash

Asia Market - still trapped at only 20% cash. Did not even rally on the past 2 months like what PSE did when it hit 4500 level.