Even if i am away of PH, trying to take a relaxing vacation at angkor wat cambodia, every minute i am tempting to find a wifi to analyze things up, as i know 12000 is a very important support for the u.s, with now at 11300 level, seems that a probable recession is coming earlier than expexted. i will temporary leave my readers to scan through tony caldaro's post below...
SHORT TERM: market tumbles after gap down opening, DOW -513
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher but closed -3.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless report came in flat: 400K vs 399K. The market gapped down at the open for the fifth time in nine trading days. The SPX opened at 1249 and immediately dropped to 1236 in the first few minutes. The SPX had closed at 1260 yesterday. After a bounce to SPX 1242 the downtrend made a new low for the ninth consecutive day when it hit 1233. Then after a rally to SPX 1240 by 10:30, the market broke through the OEW 1240 pivot range and headed to the lower ended of the 1222 pivot range at 1216. A good rally followed to SPX 1232 by 1:00. But even that rally was met with additional selling as the SPX hit 1212 by 2:30. After another rally attempt to SPX 1222 by 3:00 the market dropped to 1200 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -4.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -4.80%. Bonds gained 41 ticks, Crude dropped $5.45, Gold slipped $13.00, and the USD soared. Support for the SPX drops down to 1187 and then 1176, with resistance now at 1222 and then 1240. Short term momentum remains oversold. Tomorrow, the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30 then Consumer credit at 3:00.
Today certainly looked like some sort of capitulation day. As noted, the market gapped down for the fifth time in nine trading days, tried to rally, but trended lower all day. Even before today’s final low the market overlapped the April 2010 Primary wave I SPX 1220 high. With the current wave structure there is only one highly probable count. The one posted. A bear market is underway.
Long term support should first appear around the low of Primary II at SPX 1011. Should that fail to hold we’re looking at the low of Major wave 2 at SPX 869. It’s not good news. In fact, it’s quite disappointing. We expected, and the waves projected, a lot more upside out of the bull market. But as we have reported foreign markets, and market internals started to break down. When the selling pressure became too intense to support additional higher rising trends, Primary waves III and V truncated. Yes, we had five waves up from the March 09 low, and yes, it was a bull market.
Short term support is at the OEW 1187 pivots, and then 1176 and 1168 pivots. These two lower pivots created support during Major wave 4 of Primary wave III in November 2010. Overhead resistance is now at the OEW 1222 aand 1240 pivots. Short term momentum continues to diverge but has been of little help. Daily momentum is now extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts have been negative since SPX 1335. Will take a strong rally back to 1260 to turn them positive again. Best to your trading/investing!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Categories: Updates
Tags: business, economy, elliott wave, finance, investing, markets, OEW
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