Dow and China 6-29-2012

With regards to our post 4 days ago, Dow Jones is currently on a short term uptrend line, which has support around 12300-12400, and so far, it seems to find it as a good higher low.

Elliot Wave count also is looking good, and must not break below that level to be placed the count at ii of 3 of Primary wave III. Overall, this market could be a trade the range season, and today's closing might be a possible H1 Window dressing which resistance is at 12775. I wild guess that we will close near that level tonight. 

Short Term: Uptrend

Medium Term: Downtrend channel in BLUE

Long term: Uptrend lines still intact but might break down into a sideways pattern.

 

GDP of U.S. was at range, a positive 1.9% growth QoQ. Shifting to the Asian channel. China is globally known to push growth all over the world, they are predicting a soft landing, but I myself is concerned on its current level. at 13x P/E Ratio with 8% QoQ GDP Growth, this should be increasing in value, and not this 2 year Long Term downtrend lines. Where peak was 3500 on July 2009.

Another concern for me is that, SSEC is nearing its 5 yr lows. or close to 29% just below the 2009 recession lows (1700). This is a dominant market, and not be a bearish companion all over the world.

Why is SSEC so weak? I really dont know also, I guess everybody should still get back to following DOW and SPX and Germany as indicators where global equities with go.

Short Term:downtrend biased, but close to finding support.
Medium Term: Downtrend Channel intact
Long Term: This RED Line below, should hold this market into an upward phase, if it doesnt hold, we see 2100, then 1900 then 1700 (the 2009 lows). Anyone wouldnt want to see China get back to 2009 lows. Something should be pumped here in my opinion.