1. Weekly RSI hit 30.0, last time it hit this level was Oct2011 last year.
2. Positive Divergence in Daily RSI. Green Line.
3. Elliot Wave count may have formed a complete a-b-c correction. ( we Initially forecasted to stay at 12310 level, but there was 2 day time period where it stayed below 12310 (might was a Bear Trap)
Now, we are now again in the important resistance/support levels and upcoming Economic Calendar.
a. MAJOR RESISTANCES to advance Further:
12700 - wave iv lows of Major Wave 1 of Primary Wave III
12700 - downtrend resistance of current short term trend
b. MAJOR SUPPORT need to hold to avoid further decline:
12000-12100 - June lows
c. Greece June 17 Elections
We layout the Chances of Short Term-Medium Term Trend to be bullish at 70%, and bearish at 30%. Raised from 50-50 during 12031 lows. Greece’ future and Monday’s Global Equity response is dependent on June 17’s Election Results. If Pro-Bailout wins, outcome is bullish, if Anti-Bailout wins, its bearish.
Chances made above is based on Estimates, Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave Theory and actual Economic Indicators. No biased sentiment or sides.
#1 Chart shows an attempt to rally and pierce through 12700 resistance upon winning of Pro-Bailout candidates in Greece. Then next Major resistance is at 12880, where equivalent to 1360 for SPX. This is the major resistance of 1360 in technical terms. DOW and SPX chart isn’t the same at this point in time,making technicals check both charts to predict things more accurately.
#2. Chart shows a disappointed result and is attempting to resume the downtrend channel and attempt to pierce through 12000-12100 important support.
My only concern on our current economy is the Low Crude Oil, Commodities are usually good indicators in forecasting long term output in market, but Crude is has lost already 27% form the April Top,and is only crawling around 82-84 this week..
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