Global Markets almost went off its short term uptrend lines when DAX almost lost its important 6400 support and 1337 for SPX.
The sell-off attempt was reversed by a 2 day 3% rally to calm the markets. Germany is alive again short term, and we are still anticipating for Germany to reach 7000 before any huge selloff resume, or breakdown this short term uptrend line.
Germany GDP is expected to be released by Aug 14,2012. And I am hoping, this run could spark more short term rally in 2 weeks time, and hoping it could really reach 7000 level. A rally to 7000 level could help send DOW and SPX back to their 2012 highs. A chance to SELL when we met that levels!!
Short Term: Uptrend line almost broke off, but 2 day rally resumed and confirmed that short term UPTREND still underway. MACD is Weak.
Medium Term: near the 7000 3yr Downtrend resistance levels.
Long Term: Q2 2012 GDP will make global markets make or break. A contracting Germany Economy will spark selloffs for sure. As I've never seen a deteriorating Economy in terms of GDP, rally to new highs. - remember last week, London just contracted another 0.8% QoQ, 3 time in a row in Negative Territory and their markets made new short term highs. So long term status- Possibly Down.
Our U.S. markets still going strong, expanding 1.5% GDP QoQ. Slightly above from expected 1.2% Growth. Current rally was due to the help of Draghi's comment to make everything possible for Euro.. Still I couldnt believe him, he cant do anything to reverse the Deteriorating GDP of EuroZone in very short period of time. It would take years, plus Eur-Usd almost high 2011 lows of 1.19xx. Weakening their value as EuroZone.
SPX almost fall from short term cliff, hanging by 1337 important support last Tuesday. SPX lost some points below that level, but technical traders made the market afloat from its support. We continue to monitor Germany and Eurozone markets, which seems to be indicator where market will go, we expect Germany to gain some more before any good/bad news come out. So trade the range pattern into possible 2012 highs.
Short Term: Uptrend intact but weak MACD. Next targets 1390,1400 then 1407. Support raised to 1335-1340.
Medium Term: Sideways to Up. Possible to reach 2012 high - 1419.
Long Term: Uptrend line since 2009 still intact.
Hong Kong and China markets are the worst performers in Asia. HK is dragged down by China's -20% YoY Index Price.
Hang Seng is near to its Long Term uptrend line, and they must act out fast to Defend these multi-year long term uptrend support.
In very short term, we are seeing 19500 downtrend resistance in GREY Line, followed by Short-Medium Term uptrend to 20,000 level. A trade the range pattern same with SPX and Germany.
Short Term: must move above 19500 to reach 20000 uptrend resistance
Medium Term: Downtrend multiyear resistance at 20500.
Long Term: Sideways
CURRENT POSITIONS (dollar):
18% - Equity
55% - High Yield Bonds (mix of Corporate,Govt Bonds)
27% - Cash
CURRENT POSITIONS (Philippine Peso):
12% - Equity
88% - Cash/High Yield preffered stock
No comments:
Post a Comment