Germany slightly toppish, others may follow, waiting for Aug 14 Germany GDP 8-7-2012

Last week's post, we are anticipating a strong rally this week, and approximate to hit near 7000 or 7000 for the Germany. It may have already hit our targets at 6944, or may hit higher into near 7000 level anytime this week to next week.

Few things alarming me that we may see strong resistances/pullback anytime.

1. RSI of Germany index (DAX) is in negative divergence

2. 6944 is very near the 7000 (2 year resistance level).

3. Deepening Recession in London,Italy, Spain and UK.

4. Elliot Wave count seems like a 5 valid upward count. Or seems to be a valid A-B-C pattern, which means correction is likely high to happen anytime.

5. Italy GDP Forecast at -0.9%, deepening. Due this week(need to confirm).

 Short Term: Weak RSI, near the 7000 resistance
Medium Term: Downtrend 2yr channel
Long Term: Sideways

 

Our SPX projections is taking into shape as well, although SPX is hard to label based on Elliot Wave Patterns, I tentatively indicated that  Minute wave iii could be underway or could have ended at 1400. 

There could be 2 possible uptrend channel forming, 1st one with a resistance of 1400 in red. and 2nd one at 1420 in blue and it coincide with this Bull Cycle highs at 1422.

Short Term: Uptrend channel intact, but looking into upper trading channels. Slightly overbought and Germany slightly peakish short term

Medium Term: Sideways to Uptrend

Long Term: Uptrend at 1280 SPX.

Hong Kong is sluggish but with a good tradable range, 20,000 target achieved and can now be shorter temporarily.

Short Term: Uptrend channel reached. and 20,000 resistance reached.
Medium Term: 2-year downtrend resistance at 20,500 coming.
Long Term: 4yr Bull Market Uptrend line intact, but increasing at 18,500.

THE BAD and WEAK SIDE. China.

All throughout this Ball Game, im not sure why China is so sluggish, and if their market really proves 7.6% GDP is still strong, or possibly China Economy reflects on Hang Seng index?

Anyway,lets discuss the possibilities and its current status.

China is now at 21xx, a very low level, compared to 1600 last 2008 recession bottom.

What concerns me is that, Germany is peakish, but China is bottomish, which market to follow?????

The red uptrend channel may also broke down. Its the 4yr uptrend line since 2008. The last line defence of the bulls, but it seems the sell-off was triggered when it went below that line.

I am still trying to figure out China index' role in this Global Economy. If its a Catalyst, or a trap or maybe a Bullish sign of this market.