SPX Elliot Wave - THREE COMPLETE SCENARIOS 9-25-2014

Updates from our last post SPX THREE COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE SCENARIOS (8-28-2014)

Looks like scenario #3 is still the current count and pretty much extending.




 SCENARIO#1 SPX makes new high and is finishing Int Wave 3 or have finished, semi BULLISH count (30% chance)

SPX is finishing Int Wave 3 of Major Wave 5 of Primary Wave III, or could have finished if SPX drops below 1900.

If SPX drops 1870-1930 and begins to rally and make new highs, we can forecast Int Wave 5 of end Primary Wave III will be around 2040(0.618% of Int 1) to 2140 (Int 5 = Int 1)

SCENARIO#2 SPX makes new high, long way to go, VERY BULLISH COUNT(20% chance)

This count suggests that SPX just finished Major Wave 3 and has very long way to go to the upside.

Based on Primary I x 1.618 = Primary III. Target could be around 2230.

This is a VERY bullish scenario and for presentation only(with fibonacci retracements/targets) but not the preferred count as of this moment.

 

SCENARIO#3 SPX makes new high, few more room left, BEARISH COUNT(50% chance and bearish consolidation due next)

 I am a little upset that SPX could be extending again.

Based from the price movement, this count suggests that Int wave iv is subdividing, and a tentative minor 1 and minor 2 is placed on the chart.

minor 3 have a target of 2040-2060 upside. and end of minor 5 can be around Oct-Nov 2014.

A fall below 1900 will invalidate this extension and our old forecast that Int v of Major 5 of Primary III ends at 2019.

*All scenarios put 1900 as an important pivot point for Elliot Wave counting.

Good luck. Cheers!